DAVOS 2026: Carney’s doctrine for a middle-power Canada
In Davos, Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered an address titled “Principled and pragmatic: Canada’s path.” He framed the moment as a break from old assumptions and a call for “middle powers” to stop performing comforting narratives. In this perspective, we share our read of the speech’s core moves and what they imply for Canadian business and investment leaders as Canada competes in a more transactional world.
The question behind this piece
Carney’s speech argues that the rules-based international order no longer functions as advertised and that pretending otherwise creates vulnerability. If that is true, Canada’s challenge is not rhetoric. It is design: what system do we build so Canada can stay open, stay sovereign, and still win in a more transactional world?
Why this matters now
First, economic interdependence is increasingly treated as leverage. Carney explicitly describes tariffs, finance, and supply chains as tools of coercion. In our view, that makes resilience a core leadership mandate, not a risk-team sidebar.
Second, middle powers are acting more openly as blocs and coalitions, rather than waiting for multilateral institutions to do the work. This is showing up in markets, in trade posture, and in defense and industrial policy choices.
Third, in our view, the constraint is no longer ideas. It is delivery capacity: permitting, procurement, intergovernmental alignment, and the ability to finance and execute large programs without credibility loss.
The old playbook will not return. Plan for rupture, then build for resilience.
Our perspective
We think the speech contains four underlying moves that matter for Canada over the coming years, regardless of party or personality.
I. He is attacking polite ambiguity as a national weakness.
The “sign in the window” metaphor is doing real work. The argument is that societies preserve fragile arrangements by repeating phrases they privately doubt. Our view is that Carney is asking Canada to stop outsourcing security and prosperity to a story about stable rules, and instead operate from explicit assumptions about rivalry, leverage, and misalignment.
II. He is proposing a doctrine: principled and pragmatic.
Carney borrows value-based realism and frames it as calibrating relationships, so depth reflects values, while still engaging broadly with “open eyes.” Our view: this is an attempt to resolve a tension Canada often struggles with, namely, how to hold values without becoming strategically naive or economically exposed.
III. He is shifting Canada from institution-first to coalition-first.
He explicitly advocates variable geometry, meaning different coalitions for different issues, anchored in sufficient common interests to act. In our opinion, this is the most operational line in the speech. If Canada takes it seriously, it implies Canada will behave more like a platform builder: stitching together trade, defense procurement, critical minerals, and AI cooperation into a dense, reusable web.
IV. He is making domestic strength the price of an independent foreign policy.
A core claim is that countries earn the right to principled stands by reducing vulnerability to retaliation. He also points to Canada’s assets (energy, critical minerals, capital, talent) and describes a set of intended domestic actions and investment priorities. Our view: whether or not every claim survives scrutiny, the direction is unmistakable. Canada is being positioned as a supplier of strategic inputs and a destination for large-scale investment, but only if projects can clear the messy middle of permitting, interprovincial coordination, and procurement execution.
Middle powers either shape terms together, or they inherit terms from stronger players.
If you want a practical takeaway, here is what this doctrine would require in execution terms, in our opinion:
- A tight national priority stack (few platforms, not many slogans).
- Clear decision rights across federal, provincial, and Indigenous partners.
- A repeatable investment-to-delivery pathway: permitting, workforce, capital structures, and accountability cadence.
- A coalition operating model: who Canada aligns with by issue, and what Canada offers in return.
Strathen Group Engagement Model:
We help leadership teams translate policy and geopolitical shifts into investable programs that can be financed, approved, and delivered. A typical engagement is structured in four phases.
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Official transcript of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s address at Davos, Switzerland, on January 20, 2026.
Image: Prime Minister Mark Carney at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026.
Image credit: World Economic Forum (screenshot from YouTube), via Wikimedia Commons. Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Resized for web; no other changes.
